A recursive linear programming analysis of the future of the pulp and paper industry in the United States: Changes in supplies and demands, and the effects of recycling

The impacts of increased paper recycling on the U.S. pulp and paper sector are investigated, using the North American Pulp And Paper (NAPAP) model. This dynamic spatial equilibrium model forecasts the amount of pulp, paper and paperboard exchanged in a multi-region market, and the corresponding prices. The core of the model is a recursive price-endogenous linear programming system that simulates the behavior of a competitive industry. The model has been used to make forecasts of key variables describing the sector from 1986 to 2012, based on three recycling policy scenarios. Waste reduction policies that succeed in reducing demand for paper would have the greatest impact on the amount of wood used. But the minimum recycled content policies envisaged currently would have no more effect than what will come about due to unregulated market forces.